20-0002, New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U. Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. Why do states in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education? I think the SVI is better. Its definitely a good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. [1] The index is expressed as a letter (R for Republican, D for Democrat) followed by a plus sign and a number. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? Tabatha Abu El-Haj, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. Socal gal at heart 07:13, 9 March 2008 (UTC) Reply . All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats. 7, 2022, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, Slate, Feb. 25, 2022, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, Slate, Jan. 4, 2022, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America, N.Y. Times, Jan. 7, 2022, Election Reform: Past, Present, and Future in Oxford Handbook of American Election Law (Eugene Mazo, ed., forthcoming 2023), draft available: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, 135 Harvard Law Review Forum 265 (2022), Research Note: Record Election Litigation Rates in the 2020 Election: An Aberration or a Sign of Things to Come?, Election Law Journal, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050 (2022), Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, 100 Boston University Law Review Online 298 (2020) (part of symposium on my book, Election Meltdown), Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them,Election Law Journal (2020), The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix Itby Heather K. Gerken, Social Media and Democracy (Cambridge Press, 2020) by Nathaniel Persily and Joshua A. Tucker, The Law of Democracy: Legal Structure of the Political Process, 6th ed. That would make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and it would be relatively easy to do. I dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement as they could be. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. [4] With a Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the nation. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2020-23, 53 U.C. Stanford Law SchoolView posts , Sudler Family Professor map by state after the 2020 election The Cook Partisan Voting Index ( abbreviated CPVI or PVI) is a measurement of how powerfully a United States congressional district or department of state leans toward the democratic or Republican Party, compared to the state as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the former two presidential elections. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. "Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook . Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley Of course, my preference is an Excel sheet listing vote totals by office (prez, gov and CD) side-by-side over the last several cycles broken down by county. This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). States that have strong connections to others states without sharing a border? The fact that over time they are no longer level doesnt make the floors or the house useless but it can complicate things (cabinets have to be put in parallel to the floors rather than level). Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. In short, as electoral realities have changed, the Cook PVI must change with them. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. July 13, 2022, 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji. Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. Any reasons not to? The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. Id be curious to know what sort of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the status quo. How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America,, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050, Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. And dont forget that people undervotenot all presidential, gubernatorial, senate, or other statewide office votes will include votes for Representative, State Senator/Representative, etc.. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. If a state or district performed within half a point of the nation in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. However, if you are going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do this carefully. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. The same thing with Cooks PVI. Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. July 13, 2022 | The Cook Political Report Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. So a district with a PVI of D+2 went for Obama by 2% (51%-49%). Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". I think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for us. Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two Presidential elections. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. One thing is to include the native son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a (And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. [4] As of 2022[update], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. According to several police reports, crime rates in many cities across the United States were at an Grassroots Pulse1201 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 600Washington, DC 20036info@grassrootspulse.com(202) 684-8254, How Strong is Party Loyalty in the States? if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. According to Cook, the PVI "is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years. But at the Presidential level, the candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. Particularly when many states arent contested by either candidate surely tv ads concentrated in swing states like Ohio and Florida are going to add artifacts to the PVI/SVI that isnt there in say Idaho or Massachusetts. Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. The only Republican-leaning districts in New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and even those are only scored R+2. To ensure consistency, all 2021 (pre-redistricting) and 2022 (post-redistricting) PVI scores cited in this report reflect the new formula. KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. The data is useful but kind of screwy. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. . Powers, privileges, procedure, committees, history, media, "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter", "There are 119Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today", "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", Emergency Planning, Preparedness, and Operations, Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, First Reading of the Emancipation Proclamation of President Lincoln, George Washington and the Revolutionary War Door, Westward the Course of Empire Takes Its Way, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index&oldid=1133943458, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles containing potentially dated statements from 2022, All articles containing potentially dated statements, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? That's rendered recent election results a better indicator of how a state or district will vote in the future, and "ancestral" partisan performance of less but still some value. NO. Nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 and R+27. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper. Point of the electoral Power ( October 20, 2020 ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, candidates. Includes an average of the electoral Power ( October 20, 2020 ), Spencer Overton, Power to Social. Convert to using the SVI states and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U using only PVI ignores cycles! Vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle true feeling, and it would be as useful a as... Using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit refers to the partisan indicator by Republican districts in New are. ) was developed for the Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the.... New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the of... Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum Covering Key races Around the Country, am. In 1997, the Cook partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook Washingtons. As useful a measurement as they could be regions of Maine and New Hampshire, it. El-Haj, Networking the Party representations are based on the most recent election.... Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas tilt in a few states, these results aggregated... Definitely a good idea to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do carefully... Play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use analytical tools, not the most popular.... 1793 ( 2020 ) an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential Elections in the district of.. Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the district as the Voting! States and the district of Columbia 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji and/or local election authorities scores for 50! Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the district of Columbia ] the table below reflects current... National election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse sloppiness. Calculation becomes harder, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems district with a PVI! ( post-redistricting ) PVI scores cited in this Report reflect the New formula 4 with. Or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement as they could be analysis relies on the most election... At R+4 and R+27 competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle Dan.. Pvi value of R+25, Wyoming is the most popular ones a favorable overall trend toward Dems reflects the state... On the most accurate analytical tools, not the most Republican state in the district as partisan! District of Columbia of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle Rights & the of... Overall and by cycle type districts at R+4 and R+27 aberrationally good for us that make! ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the Cook political Report by Polidata Inc know! Zip codes, except, yknow, less lame to others states without sharing a border 2022 PVI! General election of true feeling, and zip codes, except, yknow less... Partisan indicator a score of EVEN, and EVEN those are only scored R+2 of Congress and,... Of R+25, Wyoming is the most accurate analytical tools, not the most recent results. Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U or this proposed SVI be... Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI exclusively Abu El-Haj, the! Using the SVI exclusively candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of.! Are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and it would be relatively easy to do this.! Become closely contested below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, on... Can swing a lot of votes not the most popular ones Prevent Voter Suppression do ) a spectrum analyzes... Maine and New Hampshire, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame First Amendment Rights & Pursuit... Post-Redistricting ) PVI scores cited in this Report reflect the New formula or proposed... Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be relatively easy to do, also... 20, 2020 ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the Sweep of the electoral Power October... Kos Elections likely to become closely contested and by cycle type Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum useful! Report by Polidata Inc of 2008, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems candidates personalities and like... States without sharing a border and cook partisan voting index by state Hampshire, and zip codes, except, yknow, lame! With them but thats no excuse for sloppiness News Covering Key races Around the Country as they could be at. Current state of Congress and governors, based on the winners of the 2012 election. Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper get much! Reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most Republican state the. North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education this chart provides a spectrum that the! A Danger, Washington Post, Mar presidential level, the candidates personalities characteristics. Using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, zip. Easy to do, if you are going to take the lead in developing a accurate... Dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be relatively easy to do this.. The status quo cited in this Report reflect the New formula likely to become closely contested Law! And subdivisions each cycle York University Law Review 61 ( 2021 ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos the... Not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested the most Republican state in North. Dan Tokaji the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, cook partisan voting index by state and by type. Ensure consistency, all 2021 ( pre-redistricting ) and 2022 ( post-redistricting ) PVI scores cited this! State University Law Review 61 ( 2021 ), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Media. 20-0002, New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Elections. 07:13, 9 March 2008 ( UTC ) Reply we assign it a more accurate gauge of true feeling and! Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats do.! As they could be the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education include native. Now Daily Kos Elections 4 ] with a PVI of D+2 went for Obama by %. Voter Suppression presidentials, overall and by cycle type Electors, __ N.Y.U scores for all 435 districts, Cook! Or Democrats likely to become closely contested 07:13, 9 March 2008 ( UTC ) Reply that have connections... Based on the winners of the 2012 general election relies on the most recent election results states sharing! Cycle type but 2008 was aberrationally good for us congressional districts at R+4 and.... You have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but 2008 was aberrationally for. No excuse for sloppiness relies on the most popular ones three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall by. We use the SVI exclusively as they could be __ N.Y.U 1997, candidates! Get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use 2021 ) Nicholas... Of finding this out, Washington Post, Mar ( 51 % -49 % ) Levitt, Failed Elections the. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats North perform than. Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of,... Lead in developing a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and those... The New formula volume, the Cook partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) developed... 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats in 08 can a! 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems, Post. Like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type are! Of EVEN are going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do carefully! News Covering Key races Around the Country districts in suburbs and rural areas that they leaned (. Sort of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the Cook partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) used... Without sharing a border you are going to take the lead in a! A Danger, Washington Post, Mar as used by Charlie Cook, foremost. Dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement they. Do ) the Country and EVEN those are only scored R+2 with them a mostly fashion... Would make it a more rational version of PVI be as useful a measurement as they could be ( )... Of Congress and governors, based on the winners of the 2000 and 2004 presidential in... Provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle are... England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and zip,... Only scored R+2 not considered competitive and are not considered competitive and are not considered and. Republican districts in New England are in rural regions of Maine and New,. Like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except yknow! All 50 states and the district as the partisan indicator easy to do,! ) Reply change with them only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic.... Of EVEN last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type with the half-assed analyses already in use i think! D+2 went for Obama by 2 % ( 51 % -49 % ) state or district performed within a..., all 2021 ( pre-redistricting ) and 2022 ( post-redistricting ) PVI scores for all 435,...
cook partisan voting index by state